(Written by Matt Ward)
Vladimir
Putin has in the past decade spent billions of dollars that the
Russian economy does not have modernizing his military, especially his nuclear
arsenal and military command and control structures.
This
was fine as long as the price of oil remained stable as 70% of the Russian
economy is based on oil. However, in order for the Russian economy to
break even it needs to sell oil at a minimum price of $109 per barrel. Today it
is being sold at under $50 dollars per barrel.
To
try and counter the negative effects of this oil crash Russia have been ramping
up their own production of oil to 10.667 million barrels per day. This is,
however, proving ineffective because OPEC, in the Middle East, are flooding the
market with cheap oil at low, low prices to try and kill off the more expensive
American Shale oil markets. There seems to be no imminent solution on the
horizon.
Russia’s
outlook is bleak. Holgar Schmieding, Berenberg Banks London based chief
economist puts the situation succinctly: “...the risk is that, as a
badly-wounded and cornered bear, Russia may turn more aggressive in its
increasing desperation, threatening global peace and the European economic
outlook.”
On
January 13, 2015 Goldman-Sachs also slashed its forecast for the Rubel in 2015,
predicting that it will lose 70.0 Rubles per month against the
US dollar, for at least the next three months. The same forecast also predicts
the price of oil to fall over the next twelve months to anything from $42 to
$39 per barrel.
Russia
and Vladimir Putin face a terrible dilemma.
At
present they are fully capable and able of launching a major war. The paradox
though is that if the economic situation remains constant and does not improve
throughout 2015, the longer they leave it the more incapable they are of
actually fighting a prolonged war. This is because, “…the massive blow to
Russia’s economic capabilities should –- over time –- make it less likely that
Russia will wage another war.”
The
condition of the Russian economy, aligned with the global economic outlook is
virtually guaranteeing war. As with Nazi Germany in 1939, Putin understands
that a ready solution to Russia’s worsening economic woes would be to simply
take and then consume economically valuable assets from other nations, like
land or oil and gas fields.
This
is exactly what Bible prophecy dictates will happen, “…have you come to take a
spoil?”(Ezekiel 38:7) The recent Russian invasion and agitation in the Ukraine
should be seen in this light.
Mikhail
Gorbachev, the renowned older world statesmen is openly voicing his concerns
that this present situation could turn into a limited hot war which may expand
to a global conflagration between Russia and America, with the current trigger
point being Ukraine,“…a war of this kind would unavoidably lead to a nuclear
war,” the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize winner told Der Spiegel.
“We
won’t survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated
situation,” added Gorbachev, 83. “This is not something I’m saying
thoughtlessly. I am extremely concerned.” Former US Secretary of State Henry
Kissinger has also given a chilling assessment of a new geopolitical situation
taking shape amid the Ukrainian crisis, warning of a possible new Cold War and
calling the West’s approach to the crisis a “fatal mistake.” The
91-year-old diplomat characterized the tense relations as exhibiting the danger
of“another Cold War.”
“This
danger does exist and we can’t ignore it,” Kissinger said. He warned that
ignoring this danger any further may result in a “tragedy,” [4]
On
December 24, 2014 the Obama Administration ramped up the pressure on Putin and
Russia by passing the anti-Russian resolution H. Res. 758 in the United States
Congress. If roles were reversed and this legislation were passed by Russia
against America, the United States may well interpret it as an act of war.
The
title of the resolution aptly sums up its contents, “Strongly condemning the
actions of the Russian Federation, under President Vladimir Putin, which has
carried out a policy of aggression against neighboring countries aimed at
political and economic domination.”
Other
such similar legislation, such as the Iraqi Liberation Act of 1998, were used
successfully as a pretext for war.
Ron
Paul summarizes the key issues:
These
are the kinds of resolutions I have always watched closely in Congress, as what
are billed as “harmless” statements of opinion often lead to sanctions and
war…If anyone thinks I am exaggerating about how bad this resolution really is,
let me just offer a few examples from the legislation itself:
As
to Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, why isn’t it a violation of
Ukraine’s sovereignty for the US to participate in the overthrow of that
country’s elected government as it did in February? We have all heard the tapes
of State Department officials plotting with the US Ambassador in Ukraine to
overthrow the government. We heard US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria
Nuland bragging that the US spent $5 billion on regime change in Ukraine. Why is
that okay?
The
resolution (paragraph 11) accuses the people in east Ukraine of holding
“fraudulent and illegal elections” in November. Why is it that every time
elections do not produce the results desired by the US government they are
called “illegal” and “fraudulent?” Aren’t the people of eastern Ukraine allowed
self-determination? Isn’t that a basic human right?
The
resolution (paragraph 13) demands…the government in Kiev to resume military
operations against the eastern regions seeking independence.” [5]
The
Obama Administration then followed one week later with Act, S.2828, The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014.
The provisions of this Act allows the United States to provide a whole range of
lethal and non-lethal weaponry to Ukraine, including: Communications equipment.
Body armor. Night vision goggles. Humvees. Radar. Counter-mortar detection
units. Binoculars. Small boats. Various other gear. Sniper and assault rifles.
Hand grenade launchers. Mortars and shells. Stingers. Anti-tank missiles. [6]
The
effects of these actions are considerable and damaging. As to motive, as one
observer has noted:
The
objectives of the US…strategy against the Russian Federation was not only to
damage the trade ties and business between Russia and the EU, but to also bring
about economic instability in Russia and to create currency instability and
inflation. In other words, the US government was targeting the Russian ruble
for devaluation and the Russian economy for inflation since at least May 2014.
[7]
The
West is underestimating the threat Vladimir Putin poses. The Russia of 2015
ruled by Putin represents a much different foe than the one the West has faced
for the past twenty years. The Russia of 2015 is cornered, is dangerous and is
under no illusions about who it blames for its current situation:
Washington.
Vladimir
Putin has made no secret of the fact that he no longer believes in diplomacy
with Europe, or in confidence building measures between the two, as he firmly
believes that European foreign policy is simply an extension of Washington’s.
Putin
also has no trust or desire to negotiate with Washington who have wasted no recent
opportunity to vilify and attack a Russian regime headed by a man that Hilary
Clinton herself as described as “Adolf Hitler.” This is fundamentally shaping
Russian foreign policy in a way that is detrimental to the West, to Europe and
to the United States of America.
It
is pushing an already wounded animal into a corner.
Russian
perceptions are that there has been a planned and ongoing effort on the part of
the West to weaken and subjugate Russia and its interests for years. Russia was
too weak previously to stand up to Western intimidation but that changed in the
summer of 2008 when Washington ordered its puppet regime in Georgia to invade
the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, killing a number of Russian
peacekeepers and civilians in the process. Russia’s response was decisive and
brutal. Within a few short hours the Russian military had comprehensively
crushed the U.S. armed and trained Georgian invasion force, restoring South
Ossetia once again to Russian control.
Circumstances
are now forcing Russia to turn and face southwards, towards the Middle East to
find new allies in a hostile world. Iran( ancient Persians), are also breaking
under the weight of Western sanctions which is costing them billions and
billions of dollars in lost oil revenues every year and they have made ready
bed mates for the wounded Russian Bear.
Russia
in return have for a number of years supplied the technical expertise,
encouragement and political cover for Iran’s controversial nuclear weapons
program and therefore have a heavy investment in its completion and success. It
is highly probable that these facilities will be attacked by Israel in the
coming months or later this year, as Israel, coupled with the virulent
anti-Semitic rhetoric of Iran’s leadership, believe the existence of these
weapons to be an existential threat to their very existence. Israel believe
Iran would use these weapons if they had them.
And
in the middle of this situation sits the newly discovered Leviathan Gas Fields,
of Israel. An oil field so vast it could dwarf the existing Saudi and Iraqi
fields making Israel, or whoever owns them, the richest nation on planet Earth.
These oil fields also sit easily within what Russia perceives as their
legitimate sphere of influence, as being within their grasp.
Ezekiel 38: 3-12
“And
say, Thus saith the Lord God;
Behold, I am against thee, O Gog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal: And
I will turn thee back, and put hooks into thy jaws, and I will bring thee
forth, and all thine army, horses and horsemen, all of them clothed with all
sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them
handling swords: Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield
and helmet:
Gomer,
and all his bands; the house of Togarmah of the north quarters, and all his
bands: and many people with thee. Be thou prepared, and prepare for thyself,
thou, and all thy company that are assembled unto thee, and be thou a guard
unto them. After many days thou shalt be visited: in the latter years thou
shalt come into the land that is brought back from the sword, and is gathered
out of many people, against the mountains of Israel, which have been always
waste: but it is brought forth out of the nations, and they shall dwell safely
all of them.
Thou
shalt ascend and come like a storm, thou shalt be like a cloud to cover the
land, thou, and all thy bands, and many people with thee.Thus saith the LordGod; It shall also come to pass, that at
the same time shall things come into thy mind, and thou shalt think an evil
thought:And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I
will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling
without walls, and having neither bars nor gates, to take a spoil, and to take
a prey; to turn thine hand upon the desolate places that are now inhabited, and
upon the people that are gathered out of the nations, which have gotten cattle
and goods, that dwell in the midst of the land.”
For
the first time in history the confederation of nations bent on attacking Israel
spoken of above are not just in place, they are in alliance. For
the first time in history a potential and viable economic incentive for direct
Russian military intervention in the Middle East exists, with the vast
Leviathan Gas Fields.
At some point in the near future the Bible tells us
there will be a hook placed into Gog’s jaw by God Himself, drawing him to the
mountains of Israel to face his doom.
If the current economic and world geopolitical
situation remains unchanged this could be very soon indeed.
0 comments:
Post a Comment